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New report: Smartphone shipments and revenues in China, with forecasts to 2022


We release a report today in which we forecast that shipments of smartphones in China will total 468m in 2022, growing at a compound annual growth rate of +1.2% between the end of 2017 and the end of the forecast period

During 2022, Coda expects Xiaomi smartphone shipments into China to take a 22% market share, just shy of Huawei in top spot. Closer to the present, Coda foresees that 2018 will see a slight contraction after last year's decline, before recovering slightly in 2019.

Xiaomi's founder, Jun Lei, stated in 2018 that he wants Xiaomi to reclaim its position as China's top smartphone brand within a couple of years. We don't foresee this happening within this timeframe but it will be in the top two come 2022.

Of concern to brands outside the top five is that they will see their aggregate share gradually shrink to less than one in ten smartphones shipped in 2022. By the end of 2018, we will see a shakeup of the smaller brands, especially those who depend on China for their market.

One of the opportunities over the next year or so is which of the top brands can best pick up customers from these smaller brands. An opportunity from 2020 will of course be around 5G and which brands can best persuade users to upgrade their phones, especially when for most consumers, 4G will continue to suffice in these early years.

Another story to emerge from the research is that Apple's share will be at the 11% mark in 2022, not much more than what it is currently. This is actually quite respectable, and represents an uplift of 25% on its shipments in 2017. Apple is an aspirational premium brand in China, and it is able to maintain this partly through its high cost. Lowering prices would extend its reach, but this would impact the brand in the long term. Apple wants to be in a league of its own.

For further details, please contact Dr Steve Smith at +44(0)7779 610004.


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